Clive Update – March 27, 2020

 

Niall van de Wouw CLIVE BV Managing Director

The supply of air cargo capacity across the Atlantic is dominated by passenger aircraft. When the airlines’ changed their passenger schedule from the summer to winter planning (see chart, week 43 onwards) the total capacity dropped by nearly 20%. This reduction directly pushed the lane’s dynamic loadfactor upwards by 12% points; from 68% to 80%.

No wonder many of us were wondering what the impact would be of the recently announced cancellation of close to all passenger flights across the Atlantic. Our latest analyses paint a clear, but perhaps surprising picture. The first cut in capacity of 18% was implemented in calendar week 11, but the loadfactor did not rise as one might expect. Instead it fell by 1% point to 77%. Last week the capacity was further reduced by 30% but again the loadfactor hardly moved.

This means that the drop in capacity by the airlines that we analysed. was matched by decrease in demand for their capacity across the Atlantic. The anticipated spike in loadfactor has not manifested itself yet. Let’s see what the next few weeks will bring, when the scheduled capacity is reduced to just a fraction of what it was just a few weeks ago. We will keep you posted.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.